TheShortlist

The Shortlist Newsletter

One pattern per issue. Drawn from fifty real venture outcomes and counting.

Each issue takes one finding from The Shortlist's pattern algorithm, unpacks it with real examples from a16z, Sequoia, Redpoint, and the named failures of the last decade, and translates it into something a founder can actually use.

Issue 04 · 2026-06-18

More money, worse odds.

The four largest cash raises in our dataset all ended in failure: WeWork, Magic Leap, Quibi, and Jawbone, roughly $18B combined. The metric that catches it while a company is still private is the burn multiple, and the failures ran it five to ten times higher than the winners at the same stage.

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Issue 03 · 2026-05-19

Winners show how many customers stay.

Every public SaaS winner in our anchor dataset disclosed a customer retention metric in their S-1. The two venture-backed failures that filed publicly chose not to. What companies omit from their prospectus is itself a signal.

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Issue 02 · 2026-05-14

Ads don't save startups.

73% of failures bet on marketing. 18% of winners did. The single biggest gap in the dataset.

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Issue 01 · 2026-05-05

The single-moat trap.

Every failure claimed one moat. Every winner claimed two or more. The data is binary.

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